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7.19.2004
OGL I hope not. Iran, unlike Iraq actually has a slim chance of dragging itself out of clutches of its theocratic rulers. I wonder what is with all the talk about Iran and Al Qaeda? In what I might consider a slap-in-the-forehead moment of stupidity the US announced that we might consider sanctions against Iran for not cooperating on nuclear issues. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell says the Bush administration will reconsider in September the question of whether to pursue U.N. sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program. Mr. Powell discussed the issue Monday with the International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Mohamed el-Baradei. The reason I see this as stupid is because sanctions will only strengthen the leaders that are in power there and deprive the young generation of Iranians that want more wealth and openness of a chance at real reform from within. Did we learn nothing from Iraq? Sanctions only seem to work well if the nation gives in to the threat, otherwise you end up punishing the people of the country more than you do the leaders who can take control of what wealth remains and destroy their political opponents. That's what Saddam did in Iraq, another Middle East country that hosted a population that was well educated and open-minded. Even after a decade of sanctions he was still in power and the suffering had been passed down to the people of Iraq who in turn started to resent the world that was punishing them for the misdeeds of their leader. I think it would be a mistake to go the sanctions route with Iran. I also feel that it would be a strategic mistake to draw Iran into a direct conflict with the US. The Iranian leaders would have an easy time convincing their people that the US is making false claims simply to justify another Iraq-like invasion of a Muslim country. The ensuing hysteria would surely result in a crackdown on any liberalizing elements within the country and a return to a stricter form of government; all justified in the name of security. Our saber rattling will be the best gift we could give to the ruling Mullahs there. Pro-western elements would be branded as US collaborators and thrown into prison. The last thing we want if we hope to ever achieve a self-directed reform of that country. We need to find ways of empowering the reform movement in that country by making it worth their time to be loyal to our interests. We can do this with one of the most powerful weapons we have at our disposal: money. Cutting Iran off from outside sources of wealth will only precipitate their slide into hostility. |
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