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2.10.2003
ok, either the Bush Admin. is really bad at foreign policy or they have a master plan that will knock our socks off. I can't decide really. I mean, you look at the team and there are some fairly competent people on the staff. People like Powell and Rice and... and... well, that might be it really. They seem to be able to piece together a reasonable argument without resorting to insults and threats like Rumsfeld or Dubya. So, If they are just really bad at foreign policy they've been really really really bad. Its like showing your hand before you start to bluff. Lets have a look at what's happened. They've threatened the credibility of the United Nations and the Security Council. They have alienated large populations of Germans and French with their remarks. People in the United States are becoming skeptical of the war and we've made being our friends an ugly thing. Blair is taking a beating, Powell, who had the most credibility is looking more and more like a puppet for the administration pitching the war that nobody wants with paper thin evidence and bad logical arguments. Their burning through all their assets in a vain attempt to trump up a war that nobody really wants. Even the right wing and the Republicans are pretty luke-warm when it comes to cheering on this war. They see that there is no imminent danger to the US. Only the most paranoid of the pundits are gung ho for this invasion. They now have a real crisis in the form of North Korea that should demand some attention but is still getting back burner treatment because of the Iraq debacle. We are stirring up bad feelings in the middle east and creating a more fertile recruiting ground for Al Qaida. But... Lets suppose that there really is some plan. Then the only course of action that will work is to stop just short of invasion. They pull back at the last minute. Our allies are grateful not to have to fight, our enemies are grateful that we still have a brain and they get what they want. Military force and the credible threat of a deranged post 9/11 president create the results that are desired without a missile being fired. Britain looks good for sticking with the US, Germany and France look good for standing on principle, Saddam gets ousted and everyone goes away happy. Bush gets to talk tough about how he lead the world to the results we wanted without having to resort to force. As a little added bonus they also get all the domestic policies that would have gotten too much bad press without the Iraq issues taking up all the media's attention. The workers still get shafted but they vote for Bush anyway. I don't know... The odds right now are not good. I won't deny the possibility that scenario #2 could play out but I have very little trust in Bush and Rove and Rumsfeld and Cheney. They are still crooked, but the real question is; are they stupid too? But I don't know... | |
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